THE ERICLE
HOPES & FEARS
I received a text message yesterday from 'Mein geschätzter Leser' in Niederhelfenschwil saying that he is "very much looking forward to hear the results (of the UK General Election) tonight. The future looks a bit brighter in the UK than in Germany France and the USA". Though I can fully appreciate his notion that the prospect - now realised – of a left-leaning government in the UK stands in marked contrast to where most other Western democracies appear to be heading, my reply to him was: ‘We are only one step behind the other major democracies. The Labour Party has an impossible task and come the next election the public will turn to Farage or his like. I hope I’m wrong, but I fear not’.
Hopes & Fears. My Long-suffering Reader, will know that The Ericle is by nature an optimist, though this optimism has caught him out on some notable occasions in the past. I would really love to see the Starmer government as a shaft of light in the darkness, as my Swiss correspondent seemed to be looking forward to, but alas I am struggling to do so. The Labour Party may carry the hopes of many UK voters, but most commentators agree that the result was more a result of the implosion of the Conservative party than a ringing endorsement of Labour; an analysis that is underpinned by the notion that a government elected by under 34% of voters has not exactly attained the most emphatic of mandates. The bottom line is that over 50% of all voters opted for neither of the 2 parties that have led UK governments since 1915. Add to this the fact that the Reform Party – in effect the UK’s Popular Front – gained 15% of the vote from a standing start. In his victory speech, Mr Farage declared his party “is building a national movement that is coming for Labour”, telling his audience in Clacton he wanted to fill a “massive gap on the centre-right of British politics .... Believe me folks, this just the start of something that is going to stun all of you”. The notion, then, that the UK has singularly found a path to the light has a straw-clutching tonality to it. I ‘hope’ I’m wrong but I ‘fear’ I’m not.
Hopes & Fears. I am writing this in front of the television awaiting the arrival of Keir Starmer to 10 Downing Street; with the BBC choosing to show images of Tony Blair in 1997. Such wishful thinking sadly flies into the face of the harsh realities of our times. New Labour inherited difficulties, which it majorly surmounted by a being a talented government and via an improving economic situation. That is a long chalk from the post-Covid austerity which grips the UK currently; leaving the Starmer government not completely straight-jacketed but certainly in a very difficult situation. And to be perfectly frank it is also hard to spot great talent in its midst. I ‘hope’ I’m wrong but I ‘fear’ I’m not.
Hopes and Fears. A couple of summers ago I attended a Political Breakfast at the Edinburgh Festival. One of the panel members was a political professional who worked at The Palace of Westminster in the pay of The Labour Party. This chap acknowledged that Keir Starmer was not a charismatic politician but argued that the world has not, of late, been well-served by politicians that are pleasing on the eye. Rather he saw Starmer as a leader whose collegiate talents would bring the best out of his team, similar to the Clement Atlee post-WW2 government. Cue the orchestra, hand out librettos for ‘Wouldn’t It Be Loverly’! [Enjoy
here]
I ‘hope’ I’m wrong but I ‘fear’ I’m not. 
Hopes and Fears. British citizens are continually regaled with the ‘fact’ that we are the 6th largest economy in the world. This may indeed be the case, but for most Brits – except possibly those working in The City – this statistic stands in marked conflict to their actual economic mood; austerity, creaking infrastructure, crumbling public sector et al. This all notwithstanding, the UK is clearly no longer an agenda-setting nation for the world. And whither the agenda setters? Dictatorships & kleptocrats to the East; and the situation in the USA doesn’t hold much hope, whichever way the American Presidency goes. As for Europe, it’s hard not to see Weimar-style implosions, while the Ukraine conflict has more than a whiff of the Spanish Civil War about it. The Gaza conflagration may possibly burn itself out, but then again possibly not – or worse. Meanwhile the wider political panorama of Africa & South America is not without its issues. And all this before one takes into account the socio-political ramifications of global warming. All these scenarios individually and collectively are not beyond the human resolution but the direction of travel does not bode well. I ‘hope’ I’m wrong but I ‘fear’ I’m not.
As I finish up this piece, I am listening to Starmer’s first Prime Ministerial address from outside Number 10. He is saying all the right things: “ Righting the national ship will not be like flicking a switch … this will be a government of service … (and that) service is a precondition of hope” And there’s that word again, Hope. It’s far too early for judgement and though the proverbial Road To Hell is paved with good intentions, at least this is a fresh start and a chance for the national ‘reset’, that is most sorely needed. But, as they say, in footballing circles, ‘it’s the Hope that kills you’!
Keep The Faith
ERICLE
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ERICLE LONDON,
As always, if you want to comment on this, or any Ericle post, you do so via EricleLondon@gmail.com
[FROM M.S. via Email]
ReplyDeleteWell, Mr Ericle, how does this incoming government really compare with Blair?
Entering power after over a decade of extreme right-wing Tory rule.
Entering government after a long period of neo-liberal economics which has shamelessly impoverished the poor and weak, enriched the rich and strong and hollowed out public services to the benefit of private companies and their shareholders.
Entering government at a point where the electorate were utterly fed up with what was happening and hoping for fundamental change. ("Change" is Starmer's repeated promise, remember).
What did Blair do? Continue the same neo-liberal economic policies without the slightest change. Continue the process of redistribution of wealth from the poor to the rich. Continue the creeping privatisation of health, social care and education to the great benefit of (largely American) big business. Continue with the process of deregulation which led directly to the great crash of the banks, and ultimately the Grenfell fire and the pollution of all our waterways with sewage, to name but three of the most obvious direct consequences. Sure, the Blair government was less bad, but that was not a high hurdle to overcome. They did many good and decent things but they were all just tinkering with the same system.
So, what does Starmer promise? Exactly the same: eye-catching headlines which add up to nothing but the most minor tweaks. Real change? No sign of that in his manifesto, nor in the way he treated everyone in the Labour Party who had higher aspirations. The recent report from the Fairness Foundation puts it very clearly: inequality will continue to rise unless the new Government is prepared to make much more radical changes. I am deeply pessimistic.
I hope I'm wrong but I fear I'm not
[From P.M. via Email]
ReplyDeleteI must take issue over your pessimism! Starmer won by however small and fragmented the vote, but he is ‘A doer rather than an ideologist’ (Laura Kuensberg’s words not mine) and seems totally realistic about the uphill road ahead.
We need to allow the new government to get on with it, because if we start heaping on the criticism and negative thinking before they’ve even had a chance to draw breath then that really WILL allow Reform and the Tory Right to make headway.
I’m sure you’ve read George Orwell’s essays (my hero along with Attlee!) and I’m hanging on to his words of wisdom. He said our democracy will always allow the extremists on both sides to shout loudly, that the average Englishmen was apathetic and disinterested in politics (viz half the population not voting this time!! 😫) although some will always hang their hats on the nearest populist slogans. But he also believed that we differed from many other (European) countries in that ultimately we have a stubborn resistance to being told what to do by extremists — I paraphrase! — which has proved true over our history so far anyway.
Despite the totally crap and horrible mess the country and its institutions are in, I believe we’ve got to try and be positive and supportive of the new government’s efforts to start re-building things, and do what we can in our own small spheres to help this along.
[From C.P. via Email]
ReplyDeleteJust read this piece and if I was any good at writing it’s exactly what I would have written.
Worrying times ahead , I fear !
Thank you for making some sense out of your election. You and Jonathan Pie continue to enlighten me.
ReplyDeleteBut I must take strong exception to your observation that "the situation in the USA doesn’t hold much hope, whichever way the American Presidency goes."
There's that false equivalency at work again. It will make a huge difference to the world which way this election goes. Huge. If the literal monster grabs power again, it may be all over for all of us. He is truly a monstrosity who will destroy all that is in his path as he seeks "retribution" for the humiliation he has suffered being openly hated by so many of the "best and the brightest" among us. Or by anyone capable of real thinking.
I literally hate Biden now for not seeing the light of day. But at least he has surrounded himself with decent and capable people--real professionals. Again, I am comparing him to what Trump would bring to the table. But if he doesn't pass the torch and soon, I literally would assassinate him in a heartbeat hoping to bring about his last one if only we're not too late.
The democrats may suck in lots of ways. but words can't describe the evil, power grubbing, grossly hypocritical (and thankfully, largely incompetent) Republicans who are seeking minority rule with the help of a fucked up electoral process and an utterly corrupt and power hungry "Supreme" court.
Bring on a civil war. I shot "Expert" on the rifle range at Parris Island with my M-14 and wouldn't mind taking out a few MAGA fuckheads if it comes to that.
God bless.
Good one!
ReplyDeleteAs they say a change is as good as a rest.. Well that's for the long suffering electorate.
ReplyDeleteBut what about the players?
Reform can take it easy for a while,I suppose, until they fully take on board the insecurity of their newfound sopport. What are the constituent parts of the Tory crossover? .. 15% like - minded Faragists perhaps, and the rest frustrated right of centre Tory voters with nowhere else to go in recent days,as they may have seen it.
But if the Conservatives should opt for an interim and sane Leader, who is capable of steadying the ship there is a strong chance that the frustrated 85% of the Farage Tories will reverse their recent decision in due course and return to a reconstituted coherent fold.
The Tory exodus to the Lib Dems is unlikely to be reversed where left of centre conservatives will find a fairly amenable home.. Ed Davies need not worry too much about losing his 70+ seats for some time to come.
Reform and particularly Farage may find their diminutive presence in Westminster a somewhat galling experience where they will have minimal opportunities of demonstrating Farage's rhetorical skills.
Meanwhile Starmer will be chastened by the Left in his own Party... many of whom see him as having engaged in shutting down internal debate... as well as acting without paying due attention to principled positions.He will also have to deal with the newly elected Independent MPs who will be vociferous both inside and importantly outside Parliament,in challenging his questionable responses to some of the pressing international issues of the day.
All this will be played out over the coming years and let's hope the new government does not repeat the internal skullduggery that has characterised the outgoing government's crass mismanagement of our affairs for too long.
Excellent summary .
ReplyDeleteWithin 10 years , I suspect that we won’t have a say in things because the present incumbent govt will have given the vote to those over 16 and removed it from those over 75 !